【Bitmidas Weekend Special】Bitcoin Trend Analytics 12th March 2022

BTC/USD, using Investing data flow for the analysis.

Recap

Yesterday, we mentioned that the price would be confined within the range between 42421.6~37017.70, centering 39846.10 and we would see a wrestle at the center.

From 15:00–22:00, the price was trying to break up 39846.10 but failed. The lowest price came back to 38236.4, supported by 38495. The highest price then touched 40177 and fall back under the pressure at 40519.5.

The opening price today is 38730.2 (08:00 UTC+8)

Market Analysis

As BTC is still running within the congestion and maintaining a similar momentum and level range, I suggest you keep focusing on the points suggested previously. The weekend is a good time to refresh, so I’ll do a general market analysis instead.

Looking back from Feb 28th to Mar 1st, when Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were put on crypto-assets for Russian, we saw a large inflow of buying orders of 4k BTC based on reliable news and stats. BTC price was quickly pulled up to 41500~42000 from 38000 and reached 44900~45000 on Mar 1st.

Many people believed that BTC finally came to be a safe-haven asset like gold and was back on a bullish track. But the reality gave them a hard blow — BTC price plunged quickly to the key support area of 37017.70 on Mar 7th.

On Mar 9th, a piece of news indicating a positive attitude of the US Treasury on crypto-assets lit up the market. A good bounce-back seduced many to open long positions. The reality again dampens the bullish spirits. Lessons learned from this is following the rules of statistics.

On 1d frame, I have 3 downtrend lines suppressing the price each day from Feb 28th to Mar 1st based on my algorithm.

It’s clear that a resistance based on my calculation prevented the price from rising during the days on Mar 9th and 10th. On that day, a friend asked me how Biden’s executive order would be interpreted in crypto, my reply was that it’s positive to the crypto market as a whole, but price should still run within the congestion in the short term. The fact of the price drop on Mar 10th speaks itself as we depicted it in statistics.

On 1w frame, you can see the red line resistance is there preventing the price from rising above it. Take a special look at the bounce on Mar 9th, that line, based on my calculation, takes a stronghold of resistance.

All the resistances and supports are shown as lines on chats. What lies behind them is the battle between longs and shorts of speculators, and they change their positions according to the market trend. One piece of news is hard to shift the market in a short period of time.

Therefore, before making any breakthroughs, the market will still be running within the congestion.

On a 1 month frame, we are clearly in between a key resistance (indicated by 1) and support (indicated by 2) range. It’s hard to tell which side will quickly win out. So the price will keep bouncing back and forth within a large congestion area.

This type of movement will be shown as a hike or a dump on a 1d frame, often caused by a piece of news.

I shared my opinion from the first day of 2022 when there was a similar market trend, but I didn’t write it down and publish it on Twitter. Now I decide to make an extra effort to share my experience with more friends in crypto. Hope you like it, see you next week.

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