【Bitmidas】Bitcoin Trend Analytics 8th March 2022

BTC/USD, using Investing data flow for the analysis.

Review: Yesterday, BTC dropped to an intraday low at 37,182.1 and recovered, and the current price is 38,215.7.

Trend Analysis

Short-term: bearishMedium-term: pullback long-term: bullish correction

BTC is currently running within a congestion range in a short-term bearish trend. The upper range is 44577.43, central at 40608.32, and the lower range at 37017.70.

According to the rules within the congestion, the price will oscillate around 40608.32 between 44577.43 and 37017.70 before leaving the range. As the center of the range, 40608.32 serves as a support or resistance. Today’s opening price is lower than 40608.32, so the price will bump between 40608.32~37017.70. (Only when the price rebounds over 40608.32 and remains there until 08:00 am in the following day, 40608.32 will turn into support.)

The lower range is around 37017.70, which happens to be a critical support level in the long-term trend. That’s why the price dropped into this area yesterday and recovered. As it was already tested yesterday, and if it is tested again and broken, the price will decline to another range, which will be adjusted downward further, and the medium-term range will be​ 38244.14~28514.

Since BTC is still in a long-term bullish trend, and different price stages have different positions and market supports, the price drop will not be achieved overnight, rather it will encounter the following supports in sequence:37140~37017.70; 36123.98; 35340.44~35009; 33252~32975.94; 31785.40; 30000; 29028.43; 28514, and the resistances in sequence:39553.32、40373.11~40608.32、41040.95、42213.55、42658.15、43860.73、 44577.43.

Summary

In the recent panic caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, precious metals such as gold and dollar assets are the primary safe-haven assets, while cryptocurrencies are only used as a fund-flowing channel. Some exchanges putting restrictions on accounts from Russia also weakens the safe-haven properties of BTC.

In addition, the expectation of increasing the interest rate of the US also stressed the market. Thus, BTC remains under pressure in the short term, and the overall short-term bearish congestion will keep going under the resistance line.

It is not a good time for the bulls to open positions in the short term. You should wait for opportunities. For the bears, in the short term, you can open a ladder of orders in an inverted triangle pattern with light-front and heavy-back positions at the resistance level.

Before the short-term trend straightens out, a certain profit can be obtained. In the congestion area, when a part of short positions gain a certain profit, it is necessary to close that position and set a protective SL for the remaining positions (that is, setting the stop loss position lower than the cost price, e.g., the average opening price is $44000, and the protective SL is set at $43000 so that it is still profitable even if SL is triggered at an unexpected market condition) to lock profits, and then open new orders.

More level ranges:

Supports: 37140~37017.70; 36123.98; 35340.44~35009; 33252~32975.94; 31785.40; 30000; 29028.43; 28514; 27315.14~27170.43; 25352.16; 22881.1~22522 (pointless to see further down at the moment) Resistances: 39553.32; 40373.11~40608.32; 41040.95; 42213.55; 42658.15; 43860.73; 44577.43; 45486~45765.78; 46463.8~47968.2; 48014.4~48620; 49159; 50217.9~50928.3; 51819~52112; 52958; 54095; 55263; 57932; 59157~59997; 61580.2; 63555.1~63637(significant resistance of the long trend); 67346 (pointless to see further above at the moment)

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