【Bitmidas】Bitcoin Trend Analytics 17th March 2022

BTC/USD, using Investing data flow for the analysis.

Time of Analysis 08:50 UTC+8

Time of Translation & Publication 11:15 UTC+8

Recap:

In the analysis published yesterday, we predicted that volatility of the price would be accompanied by Fed’s decision. Bulls and bears vied to take control over the center. I suggested you make judgments first by interest rates (>5% or <5%), then by the position of price when the interest rates equal 5%.

We saw fierce competition between bulls and bears and the momentum shifted multiple times yesterday. Fed announced a rise of 25–50bp on interest rates to 5% early in the morning on Mar.17th. This has been psychologically accepted by the market when the price is above the center. So the price went up, which is in line with my judgment.

Today the opening price is 41118.7 at 8:00 UTC+8.

Trend Analysis:

Although BTC went through violent fluctuations yesterday and temporarily went up, the strength has yet to be released so the price is still within the range I calculated.

Now BTC is in a congestion range between 43912.8 ~ 37017.70, centering 40005.15.

This is because Fed’s decision had been priced in with 5% interest rates. The news came without negative influence on the price, neither was it a good one. Raising interest rates, after all, means fund outflow in general. This weakens the outbreak to some extent.

The triangle is broken up, but it’s not stable and we will see more consolidations and breakthroughs.

The broke-up yesterday didn’t go beyond the upper line of my calculation. This trend line has suppressed the price since Mar.9th and it’s diverted from 42600 to 41947.58 today.

BTC stands above the center with a great effort. So the center serves less resistance as days before, rather more support within the range.

Today the price will firstly move between 41947.58~40005.15. Only when it breaks 41947.58 would it unleash the power to challenge 43912.8.

We should pay attention to the test to the center. If the center is tested multiple times, it will fall back into a wrestle at the center.

FOMC has passed, yet unfinished. I assume there would be a 5–7 times rise in interest rates. The next decision will be made on May 5th, 2022, when another battle will begin.

What matters most to the interest rates is inflation. If inflation keeps going up, the US is likely to add more bps to the interest rates, which could be bad news to crypto, and vice versa.

There are 3 level ranges to focus on:

1. The central at 40005.15. The price will move around it within the range. When the shift comes, take it as a critical indicator.

2. A key supporting area between 37140~37017.70. This is a crucial resistance at the lower range. As long as the price remains above it, BTC will recover in the range. If it’s broken, however, we cannot see a pullback to touch 37017.70 again within 3–5 days, and the congestion range automatically is adjusted to 37208~28501.9.

3. The upper range at 43912.8, gradually diverted from 45000. This is strong resistance in terms of positions as well as market sentiment. Only by breaking it up could we see a true recovery of market confidence.

Currently, BTC is in correction among a long-term bullish trend, resulting in the price moving back and forth between key supports and resistances.

Supports:

40005.15; 39522~39376.62; 38908.58~38853.05; 38019; 37140~37017.70; 36475.50; 35351.31~35009; 34132.52; 32927.70; 31785.40; 30000; 29220.63; 28222.56; 27315.14~27170.43; 25352.16; 23779.54; 22324.10 (pointless to see further down atm)

Resistances:

41947.58.~42200; 42620.72; 43821.59~43912.8; 44038.20; 44751~45194.10; 46085.95; 46695.37; 47295.18; 48719.63~49084.21; 50843.93 (pointless to see further above atm)

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*Not Financial Advice*