凉兮Spaces解析:坚定做空、洞悉宏观、警示牛末陷阱

互联网 阅读 616 2025-07-11 15:30:14

“不是吹牛的,老玩家是绝对知道 BitMEX 的,他们储备金 40 亿美金,大家都可以查到。BitMEX 绝对是有实力的。”

在最新的 BitMEX Spaces 中,素有“将军”之称的华语传奇交易员凉兮再次发声:自 1 月起就喊空、绝不追多,以太坊目标回落 2, 000 美元,并深度拆解“牛市庄家收割”逻辑。本稿梳理其核心观点、市场数据与宏观洞察,以供参考。

凉兮Spaces解析:坚定做空、洞悉宏观、警示牛末陷阱

Space 链接,以便回顾

https://x.com/Bitmex_zh/status/1943263269084438791

一、当下仓位:仍然坚定做空

  • 不追多,继续开空凉兮强调,“现在这个位置死都不会追多”。他自 1 月美国总统发行个人代币(被其视为牛市绝唱)后,便一路看空并布局空单。

  • 以太坊或回调至 2, 000 美元指出 ETH 曾跌破这一关键心理关口,技术面仍存下探风险 。凉席据此判断,下行空间仍未彻底释放。

二、山寨币或见底:山寨币跌 90%  后的策略切换

  • 2025 上半年,多数主流山寨从年内高点回撤 90% 以上 。凉兮回顾了自己“先空狗狗币再空其他山寨”的战绩,并坦言:“很多币已经被锤成渣,逆风做空的边际收益在下降,我们小群开始物色低位做多机会,但不能公开说,怕庄家盯盘。”

三、听好了:凉兮如何识顶与抄底

  • 顶部规律:“人人赚钱时,是最难赚钱的时候”——巨额流动性往往源自散户 FOMO,这时绝不能追涨。“特朗普发币”事件在凉席眼中正是一记“利多出尽”信号,意味着主力开始分批派发。

  • 底部逻辑:底部必须伴随恐慌性抛售,“让人拿不住”,否则难言真正见底。“阴谋集团”一定会使用很多方式让大家抛售。

  • 核心世界观:散户最宝贵的是时间与耐心;“邪恶的有钱人”试图用金钱左右大众的精力,听信官方叙事往往踩坑——“有钱人说的话,要反着听”。

四、宏观预判:经济衰退、BTC/黄金同陷杀估值

  • 2026 美国经济或陷大萧条凉席预测美国 2026 年会大跌,风险资产全面重估。

  • 比特币目标再跌 50% 若美国陷衰退、ETF 赎回与矿工抛压共振,BTC 或迎来深度回调。再跌 50% 不是“梦”

  • 黄金也难独善其身其理由是贝莱德等机构已掌控约 30% 纸黄金流通量,“互联网时代的黄金的硬通货特性难以验证,纸面游戏猫腻多”。

五、为何关注 BitMEX?——凉兮的交易所观

“我被其他平台的暗箱操作整怕了,不会轻易推荐交易所。”

BitMEX 是业内最老牌的衍生品交易所,BitMEX 发明了永续合约。

BitMEX 运营近 10 年从未发生用户资金损失;安全、透明、合规。

  • 历史沉淀:BitMEX 自 2014 上线,深耕永续合约与衍生品,历经牛熊均保持 0 用户资产损失记录。

  • 专业流动性:经历过 10 年牛熊考验的订单系统与成熟的机制,适合资深交易者。

  • 即将开放的“凉将军跟单账户”:凉席计划在 BitMEX 建立公开可跟单的策略账户,粉丝届时可一键同步其仓位,敬请期待。

六、结语

凉兮以高杠杆空头成名,又以逆势宏观视角震撼市场。本次 Space 系统阐释其“牛末收割”框架、对 Alt 轮崩盘的复盘以及 2026 宏观悲观论;并特别点名 BitMEX 的安全与透明。无论观点是否极端,其对顶底规律、散户心态和资金博弈的剖析,为投资者决策提供了极具流量与思考价值的。

DYOR

注意:以上内容不构成任何投资建议。这只是市场新闻的汇编,在进行任何交易之前,我们都建议您进行自己的研究(DYOR)。以上内容并不保证任何回报,如果您的交易表现未达预期,BitMEX 不承担任何责任。

免责声明:
1.资讯内容不构成投资建议,投资者应独立决策并自行承担风险
2.本文版权归属原作所有,仅代表作者本人观点,不代表本站的观点或立场
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class="table-col col3">9.1亿</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layui-tab-item"> <div class=" finance-index-table index-coin-list active"> <div class="table-row tit"><div class="table-col col1">名称</div><div class="table-col col2">最新价</div><div class="table-col col3">24h涨幅</div></div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="OK币行情" href="/coin/1v3.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/d/file/p/2024/04-23/9b5ae348cd221c221ac6b790c8b3c5c1.png" title="OK币" alt="OK币">OKB</a><div class="table-col col2">$168.03</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-0.1%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="FIL6行情" href="/coin/d8v.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/newcoin/filecoinnew.png" title="FIL6" alt="FIL6">FIL</a><div class="table-col col2">$2.3635</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-green">+1.47%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="Conflux Token行情" href="/coin/134.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/d/file/p/2024/04-19/a1a3bbc2beec3dc56e6dc2a504ebbbd5.png" title="Conflux Token" alt="Conflux Token">CFX</a><div class="table-col col2">$0.188</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-green">+8.23%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="比特币行情" href="/coin/1f1.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/bitcoin.png" title="比特币" alt="比特币">BTC</a><div class="table-col col2">$111503.08</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-1.41%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="Livepeer Token行情" href="/coin/mo2.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/livepeer.png" title="Livepeer Token" alt="Livepeer Token">LPT</a><div class="table-col col2">$7.3989</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-14.28%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="柚子行情" href="/coin/16m.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/eos.png" title="柚子" alt="柚子">EOS</a><div class="table-col col2">$0.506</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-0.35%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="火币积分行情" href="/coin/1fz.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/d/file/p/2024/04-23/40d027c8e8c303b6a1c62353555ee3ff.png" title="火币积分" alt="火币积分">HT</a><div class="table-col col2">$0.6967</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">0%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="Solana行情" href="/coin/anh.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/solana.png" title="Solana" alt="Solana">SOL</a><div class="table-col col2">$215.8</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-green">+1.98%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="Chai行情" href="/coin/87h.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/newcoin/chainlink.png" title="Chai" alt="Chai">LINK</a><div class="table-col col2">$24.1606</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-0.2%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="币安币行情" href="/coin/mr4.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/binance-coin.png" title="币安币" alt="币安币">BNB</a><div class="table-col col2">$870.51</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-green">+0.2%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="狗狗币行情" href="/coin/mrs.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/dogecoin.png" title="狗狗币" alt="狗狗币">DOGE</a><div class="table-col col2">$0.2207</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-1.12%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="以太坊行情" href="/coin/mro.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/ethereum.png" title="以太坊" alt="以太坊">ETH</a><div class="table-col col2">$4479.44</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-1.99%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="Horizen行情" href="/coin/1vv.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/zencash.png" title="Horizen" alt="Horizen">ZEN</a><div class="table-col col2">$7.6024</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-red">-4.54%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="Synthetix行情" href="/coin/1vr.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/coin/synthetix-network-token.png" title="Synthetix" alt="Synthetix">SNX</a><div class="table-col col2">$0.7276</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-green">+0.03%</div> </div> <div class="table-row"> <a class="table-col col1" target="_blank" title="ygg行情" href="/coin/fv18.html"><img src="https://www.btcbaike.com/static/newcoin/yield-guild-games.png" title="ygg" alt="ygg">YGG</a><div class="table-col col2">$0.1645</div> <div class="table-col col3 text-green">+1.29%</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="side-module"> <div class="module-title"> 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